"Hot money conspiracy theory" that the exit of the

With the green bean, chili, pork, garlic, oil, and a variety of vegetables up the prices of agricultural products, "hot money conspiracy theory" again noisy dust on what is hot money? Why suffer alone in China?

First, what is hot money, hot money where?

1, "hot money" is not magic

Now known as the hot money broadly defined: the incremental foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus and foreign direct investment deduction, the remaining part can not be explained. But if the task in accordance with the definition of "hot money" of the criminal record, but found that at least in the stock when the hot money is not magic.

This "unexplained part" from the 2005 rules of every six months after a net inflow and net outflow of alternate. A hp pavilion zx5000 battery in the most crazy during the year 2007 to 2008, the trend is that during the first half of 2007, "hot money" inflows in the second half out, the scale of the latter than the former. Inflow during the first half of 2008, but smaller than during the second half of 2007, 2008, the history of emerged during the second half of the largest outflows. The A shares are not synchronized with this movement, in 2007, 2008, is actually very mad and this round up of the peak in October 2008, then began to plunge.

In view of this, the Chinese stock investors worrying about the "hot money", if they really into the stock market, that is to come and stand by through thick and thin with China's stock investors, but according to Rogers, saying, "I can use in Hong Kong, buy cheaper price the same stock, why go to the mainland to buy? "

2, "hot money" from China

By "hot money conspiracy" theory is overlooked is that these "can not explain the part" is entirely possible from domestic enterprises.

Second half of 2007, the domestic futures began more biased appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and this increases with the theory of exchange rate the central bank began a large deviation, resulting in arbitrage, in March 2008 between the peak deviation of about 8% . This time, Taiwan's export enterprises with export bills as long as borrowing from the bank guarantee of U.S. dollars into renminbi swaps, to sell U.S. dollars and buy RMB spot and futures sell yuan and buy dollars, (according to the projections) can be more than 10% returns. Chinese companies have done so? Japanese economists have been using statistical data to prove this point: the first half of 2008, foreign currency loans of domestic banks grew 57% in Q1, Q2, up 49%, the central bank monetary policy report also mentioned the inter-bank foreign exchange market swap transactions during this period jumped 86%, respectively and 58%, respectively, 103.8 billion, 216.5 billion U.S. dollars. Later in 2008, 3,4-quarter foreign currency loans of domestic banks began to increase sharply over the previous year, to the first quarter of 2009 over a negative 10%, these loans began to repay foreign currency sony vgp-bps2 battery.

The hot money and the "foreign financiers" confused do not know the biggest flaw is there is no nationality of capital, money is only the manifestation of wealth in U.S. dollar terms does not mean that American property, assets, Chinese enterprises can constitute the majority of the U.S. dollar . In accordance with the "hot money conspiracy" theory is the logic of RMB into U.S. dollars at the time of arbitrage, we shouted, "foreign hot money" is a highly profitable market, and the next moment the U.S. dollar in the hands of arbitrageurs has replaced the yuan, it is not set Lee's nationality, he is a Chinese? So smart, such as Lang like a conspiracy theorist, will give the nationality of these hot money looking for an ultimate owner - Wall Street capitalists, as that process is lacking a.

Second, "hot money conspiracy theory" fundamental flaw

1, "hot money" can not be falsified

Miss Ye Tan has Zhuwen policy review in 2008 the stock market was "hot money conspiracy theory" has been noisy dust on, and whether foreign investment in the stock market is bearish or bullish is actually no agreement: A rumor is a foreign investment on a large scale in the Olympic year layout, want to take the government when the ship pulled stock prices, which led at that time included in the decision-making level of the "hot money" highly sensitive, and even the central bank's "Financial Times" published "30-year economic growth reflected in the stock market in 2800 to just between 2900 "as the stock market set a" tone "; second conspiracy theory version is very different, 2008 August 8 to 13, the Shanghai index slid 300 points, the Shanghai B shares plummeted 18.38 percent; August years, Hong Kong China stocks fall into the same "cycle." This is considered an "organized, premeditated," the short Olympic quotes.

After all, when the market is hot money into the market down say, speak low, the stock market is hot money pulled up said ship not tell Road, unknown, "hot money" was making waves argument is not falsified.

2, hot money comes, trouble, hot money is gone, economic collapse?

Hot Money Is What harm? Why do people have repeatedly warning? Online There is a widely a "conspiracy behind the price increases - a prelude to China's full withdrawal of hot money," more representative of the concept of "hot money conspiracy" theory Worries.

"Hot money conspiracy theory" is in the following:

Original foreign hot money into China, converted into RMB, for example based on the ratio of 1:7 such exchange, then it can be exchanged for more of the RMB. Now prices, and the RMB devaluation soon, hot money holders in the hands of the RMB has been reached with the bubble volume on the highest point, while the RMB has not than the proportion of foreign currency reached its lowest point this time to the renminbi exchange for foreign currency in the hands of make a small fortune. After withdrawal of hot money, the expected continued devaluation of the RMB, the Chinese economic collapse.

However, this conspiracy theory to set up, you must first step on the premise of hot money can associate all of the points: It is now time to approach a lower rate, approaching the central bank issued later able to catch the excess money created inflation, then in the hands of the yuan rise After the exchange rate can remain high in the time to withdraw. If the approach time to catch up with the high exchange rate of RMB how to do? If the rate of inflation fell before, how do? In fact, the hot money is nothing more than a trend gambling, international capital will be gambling, and domestic capital will be the same as gambling, but China's economic management as compared to the pace of economic globalization, there is a certain lag, this gambling are often win.

All the "hot money conspiracy theorists" have in common is the fear of a phrase from the not surprising, always with an "economic collapse of China" in style at the end of 2012.

In fact, the hot money out of the market form is the form of hot Dell LATITUDE D800 Battery in RMB back to banks in return for foreign exchange, but the money has always been on the market power of waves, this should be recovered. This year in March, the former deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation, said Xu Shanda made clear, should be allowed to commercial banks and foreign exchange with renminbi swaps Authority and the central bank to do so to get a dollar commercial banks, to bring foreign currency to the dollar, the renminbi to the central bank, in fact, played a role in recovery of mobility.

Third, the real reason for rising prices: inflation or

In October 2004 for the then rapidly rising prices, the NDRC responsible answer media questions, pointed out that this is mainly constituted by four reasons, including the Chinese economy is gradually entering a new growth cycle, investment in fixed assets is too large, international market prices, etc., not to mention additional money alone create the key causes of inflation.

But after that, China's economy entered a "hot money speculation," the time, Wall Street has become the world's largest conspirators, invincible financial monster, and even the financial crisis, Wall Street banks are facing bankruptcy in the Daliang fact, he was unable to make it challenged a conspiracy theory. And in 2004 started the credit expansion and inflation, it has been "hot money speculation," and the CPI masks, 2003, China's broad money supply is about 22 trillion yuan, is 47 trillion in 2008, the end of 2009, 12, 60 trillion. Than the end of 2009 and 2003, money supply increased by almost threefold, and 2008, an increase of 27% compared with ... ...

Legendary invincible "hot money" why is said to be its usual left to navigate the stock market and real estate market, turn to control the garlic green beans? Even if the hot money speculation really started agricultural products, should the central bank over the amount of days the currency issued in apple 17 inch macbook pro laptop battery far beyond the case of GDP growth will not flow into agricultural areas, have substantial impact on prices? This time, it seems clear understanding of the use of foreign nationalism "ecstasy of the heart die," the reader to judge education, "principal contradiction and the secondary contradictions," the.



A joke that the Chinese people read the article by Professor Lang, they began worrying about their food waste oil has been Wall Street control. Stock market crash strange "hot money", the property market bubble strange "hot money", even prices of agricultural products, but also strange in the "hot money" on this logic, and three 40 years ago, has frequently said, "class enemies sabotage" there is no 2 To, "hot money conspiracy theory" and all the people arrested (economic) traitors, not necessarily manufacturer every time a new means of sony vgp-bps9 battery.